Saturday, July 23, 2011

MLB Trade Rumblings...

It's getting to the end of July, and that means the following things...

1) Hot as hell temperatures
2) MLB Trade Deadline approaches

As of this writing, the Phillies are 62-36 and have a four game lead in the National League East, along with a ten game cushion to make the postseason (Atlanta has a six game Wild Card lead). The odds of the Phillies making the postseason sit at 98.8%; it would take an utter collapse to miss the postseason altogether, which I am not too worried about at this point. What I am worried about is Ruben Amaro, Jr. pulling the trigger on a trade that could help this year, but will hurt the team down the road.

With a ten game cushion for the postseason, the Phillies don't have to make a deal.  They could stand pat and keep moving as they are.  Unfortunately, many fans don't see it that way and have fallen prone to what is called the Politician's Fallacy, which is as follows:

1) What have to do something (i.e. make a trade)
2) This (Hunter Pence/Carlos Beltran/Melky Cabrera) is something.
3) Therefore, we must do this (make that trade for x-y-z)

The names being bandied about are Domonic Brown, Vance Worley, and a series of high prospects in the farm system.  These are all potential future stalwarts with the team that would be given up for an aging two-month rental (Beltran), a slightly above average player with questionable splits (Pence), or a guy with a career OPS+ of 90 (Cabrera - and if you don't include 2011, it's 85).  The postseason is such a random draw of the card; it just doesn't make sense for a team who is already that far ahead of the field to trade away pieces that could help in 2012, 2013, or 2014.  These aren't the Pirates or Indians, who are in a fight for the postseason and that one player could be a difference maker.  

I urge my fellow Phillie fans to take a step back and look at what we have and remember that while yes, they are trying to win a championship this year, we don't really want them to further mortgage the future for temporary gain.  Last night's game (wearing the 1984 throwbacks) was in a way a reminder of what happened when the team sacrificed the future to win now.  Ryne Sandberg and Julio Franco were traded away for Ivan Dejesus and Von Hayes - they won the '83 Pennant, but then went through 20+ years of futility (save for 1993) until the current era.  

I don't want that again.  One time through that was enough.

4 comments:

Andrew said...

The Worley/Brown talk is not something RAJ would ever pull the trigger on. Seattle is hot for Singleton though, so I'm thinking we may be able to flip him for a few prospects and get Beltran/ Pence.

Joshua Lattanzi said...

I don't think Rube would do that, but you never know. At least if the WIP crowd had its way, you know he would. The Singleton trade is a possibility, but so long as he is the only prospect to go. Any more than that and we are mortgaging more than we should.

Doyler said...

Making a move to say you made a move is never a good idea.

Besides, quality players clear waivers every year, so the end of this month is no real deadline.

Joshua Lattanzi said...

Yes, that is true, and if there is one thing the Phillies have done well over the past 4-5 years, it's getting the waiver-trade done - Moyer, Stairs, Iguchi, and so forth.

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